[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181736
SWODY2
SPC AC 181735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
RFD 20 SSW SBN 30 ESE FWA 25 ESE CMH 20 NE CRW 25 WNW HKY 35 NW AND
15 E GAD 35 WNW UOX 35 WSW HOT 40 SSW SPS 15 ESE CDS 15 E GAG 30 SSE
ICT 15 SSW OJC 25 WSW IRK 35 E CID 10 ENE RFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 30 E CWA
15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI 30 SE DOV
...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 W POE 30 S GGG 45 SE DAL 30 E BWD 15 NE JCT
25 SE DRT ...CONT... 85 S MRF 80 S MRF 10 NNW CAO 20 NNW LAA 40 ESE
GLD 25 ENE RSL 20 ENE FNB 20 W DSM 30 W MCW 45 N RWF 60 S FAR 10 W
ABR 45 SSW PIR 50 WSW MHN 25 SE BFF 50 NW BFF 40 SSE CPR 25 SE RKS
45 ESE SLC 45 WNW ELY 45 SE NFL 45 ESE SVE 20 ESE BNO 30 WSW PDT 50
WSW YKM 30 N OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...

...OH/TN VALLEYS...

EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING SOME DISCREPANCY IN
MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH
VALLEY.  LATEST NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS
DROPS THE UPPER LOW INTO SRN IL.  THIS LATTER SOLUTION HAS MORE
CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT AND THUS A SHARPER SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS KS/MO/IL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 MCS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL...SWWD INTO ERN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID DAY
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ALONG ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER 2000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL OR SEGMENTED
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/IL/KY/TN REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...

FARTHER WEST...MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL EXIST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL PROVE INTENSE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO EXTREME SWRN OK.  THIS
HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING MODIFIED OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.  STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YET RELATIVELY
WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT FAVORS WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS THAT SHOULD
PROPAGATE OFF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...KS/MO/IL...

SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL
IL...WWD INTO KS.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS
ACTIVITY.  IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS...NOSING
INTO NRN MO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN STORM MODE. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
FRONTAL ZONE DROPS SWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.