[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180542
SWODY2
SPC AC 180541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
MGW 30 SSE EKN 25 S BLF 30 NNW CHA 15 NNE HSV 15 S UOX 10 N TXK 40 N
MWL 15 SW SPS 10 NE FSI 25 WSW TUL 25 SSW SZL 30 ENE UIN 10 E MLI
JVL 35 S FDY 25 WSW MGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 10 NE LCH 45
ENE LFK 30 ESE ACT 30 S SEP 30 ENE SJT 45 SSE LBB 50 ENE AMA 50 S
RSL 35 NE STJ 45 W DSM 20 NNE SUX 30 N ABR 35 S BIS 15 WSW Y22 40
SSW BFF 45 NNW PUC 35 S EKO 45 W BKE 50 WSW YKM 30 N OTH ...CONT...
10 NW INL 15 N OSH 15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI
30 SE DOV ...CONT... 40 SE EWN 15 NNW FLO 45 ESE AGS 15 NNE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS INTO
THE OZARKS / ERN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MODEL FORECASTS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH ALL MODELS ABANDONING THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM INVOF IA / SRN MN INTO THE WRN GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. 
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY NOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF AS TO EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM...THOUGH SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL TAKE A MORE SELY PATH FROM SRN MN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION.  

NAM IS THE FURTHEST E OF THE THREE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A DEEPER LOW OVER SERN OH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER W WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND INDICATES A WEAKER LOW OVER ERN KY WITH A SECOND CENTER
OVER SWRN TN.  THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST W WITH THE UPPER FEATURE...AND
INDICATES NO SURFACE LOW OF CONSEQUENCE OVER THE TN / OH VALLEY
REGION.

...OH / TN / MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS / ERN OK...
INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL EVOLUTIONS IS RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE
SEVERE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  ATTM...IT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM MN INTO THE MIDWEST / LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 
MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS MO AND OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG /
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OH VALLEY
SWWD INTO PARTS OF OK...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE OH / TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY.  ONGOING CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION
FORECAST ATTM MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM HEATING / DESTABILIZATION.  

MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THIS
REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL THREAT --
WOULD LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. 
MEANWHILE...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION SUGGESTS THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.  

THOUGH NAMKF -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM AND GFS -- HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENTIALLY SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH AND INTO THE TN VALLEY
REGIONS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 15% SEVERE THREAT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.  AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO BECOME MORE LIKELY.

STORMS AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT
SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION / INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
AS INDICATED ABOVE...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS CASTING A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

HAVING SAID THAT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF VA / NRN NC INVOF ERN EXTENSION OF OH VALLEY
WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
AREA MAY REMAIN BENEATH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW /
TROUGH...A FEW STRONG / POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AIDED BY MODERATE FLOW ALOFT.  ADDITIONAL / LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION
LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM THE W.

..GOSS.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.