[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171746
SWODY2
SPC AC 171745

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
STC 30 ENE MSP 15 SSE DBQ 20 SSE UIN 25 NE FYV 20 WNW SEP 55 ENE BGS
25 E AMA 35 SE LBL 35 SW HUT 30 N MHK 25 SSE OMA 10 NE OTG 40 SW
STC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA 55 NNE 3DU
25 ENE MQM MLD 35 N ENV 40 NNW EKO 55 SSW BNO 60 ESE EUG 40 SSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ELO 30 NNW MBL
30 NE GRR 30 SSE DAY 25 NNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 30 SW EKN 40 ESE MGW 20
SW AOO 25 NNE HGR 20 E BWI 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 40 SSE MOB 40 N MOB
30 SSW GWO 20 W ELD 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45
SSW P07 25 WNW BGS 45 E CVS 15 SE DHT 10 WNW LBL 25 S RSL 40 E HSI
25 ENE YKN 20 WNW BKX 40 NW HON 35 NNE PHP 35 SW Y22 55 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN INTO NWRN TX...

...MN TO TX...

NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM
MN...ARCING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NRN OK.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A N-S BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DUE TO
WARM ADVECTION FROM MN INTO IA.  THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT
EWD DURING THE DAY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...YET
 SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE AS LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TX...NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SWRN
MN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ALONG THIS
ZONE ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC INITIALLY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES
COULD EASILY EXCEED 2500 J/KG. IT APPEARS ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

STRONG HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY.  MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  THE MAIN CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BANKED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
IF IT APPEARS FORCING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
STORMS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS REGION GIVEN THE
LIKLIHOOD FOR ROTATING STORMS AND HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.