[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170531
SWODY2
SPC AC 170529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
ATY 30 SE STC 20 NNE CID 50 SSW UIN 10 SSE MLC 20 WNW SEP 15 SSW ABI
20 W CSM 40 W EMP 25 NE BIE 25 NE MHE 25 NE ATY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW GGW 75 ENE LWT
50 E WEY 60 WSW MLD 35 S OWY 45 ESE BNO 45 SSE DLS 35 NE EUG 45 N
ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PFN 25 W DHN
30 E GWO 25 E PBF 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW
P07 20 SSW BGS 50 ENE AMA 10 SSW CNK 15 ENE GRI 20 SSE ANW 40 SSE
PHP 50 NNW PHP 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 50 NE ELO 30 WNW AUW 30 W MKE 30
SSE DAY 20 E HTS SSU 35 W SHD 50 NE EKN 20 SW AOO 25 N HGR 15 N BWI
WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD
INTO OK / N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY THIS PERIOD THROUGH MEAN LONG-WAVE
RIDGE POSITION ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM IA SWWD
INTO OK / WRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WHILE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW / TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE NERN CONUS.  FURTHER WEST...LARGE UPPER LOW / TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OFF THE W COAST...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN BROAD SWLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NWRN U.S. / NRN ROCKIES.

...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS / OK INTO N TX...
LARGELY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
BY AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF RISK AREA AWAY
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION.  STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / REDEVELOP INVOF
SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAKLY-DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. 

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AS LIMITED
/25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE WARM SECTOR S OF
UPPER FEATURE...MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH
TIME.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT
EWD OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS
AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES.

...VA AND VICINITY...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN PA / MD SWD TO NRN NC.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED /LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  HOWEVER...NWLY WIND PROFILES INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 40 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF LINEAR
CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP.  WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.