[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161740
SWODY2
SPC AC 161739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
DIK 20 ESE BIS 10 W ABR 35 ENE YKN 35 WNW OMA 30 SSW BIE 20 WNW HUT
30 NNW GAG 20 WSW LBL 35 ESE GLD 15 NNW IML 25 NW AIA 25 SE REJ 25
SE DIK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP
10 N OTM 15 WNW SZL OKC ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 50 WSW
AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 10 E ALS 35 SSE DRO 60 SSW 4BL 35 NW U17
10 W PUC 35 SSW RKS LND 30 W COD 50 N BIL 20 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PSX 30 NW HOU
45 SW LFK 45 NE LFK 45 SW MLU 10 ESE MEI 25 NW AUO 40 NW AND 30 W
GSO 30 NW RWI 30 NNW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.
 THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM KS
INTO THE DAKOTAS.

EARLY MORNING NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ND BY 00Z.  THIS RETURN
APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTH TX...AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED IN THIS REGION.  AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AHEAD OF CNTRL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS DRYLINE.  STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN KS INTO
SWRN NEB ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC EARLIEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...THUS HIGH BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BY 00Z/18TH.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
NIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z.


...SERN U.S...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN U.S.
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE UPPER VENTING FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH WEAK SFC RIDGING IS CURRENTLY WEDGED INTO THE
FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SC FOR MORE FOCUSED UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE FL PENINSULA.  INCREASING HIGH LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS.  HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED AND THUS LOW PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED.

..DARROW.. 05/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.