[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101759
SWODY2
SPC AC 101757

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
LBF 20 SSE BBW 25 W OLU 30 N OMA 30 W DSM 25 SW P35 FLV 25 E MHK 20
NW SLN 50 ENE DDC 20 NE GAG 45 WSW GAG 60 SSE EHA 25 E GLD 25 SSW
LBF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
GLD 45 WNW LBF 40 NNW BBW 10 W FOD 30 SW LNR MKE 20 SSE MKG 15 WSW
FNT 30 NE ERI 20 ESE FKL 20 SE PIT 25 ESE CMH BMG 35 NNE SZL 10 WSW
MKC 10 NNW EMP 30 SW LTS 45 NNW SJT 15 N MAF 25 NW LBB 40 S GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRF 25 N CVS
35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38 35 NNE
LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W VTN 40
E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC ...CONT... 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN
25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW PNS MEI 25
SSW GWO 50 N GLH 25 SSW POF 20 NE VIH 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS
LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX
PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/MUCH OF WRN-NRN KS/SRN NEB TO SWRN IA/NWRN
MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
EWD TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WRN STATES
UPPER LOW ATTM OVER SRN CA/SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO WRN KS/NEB BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
SERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS
IA/SRN NEB TO A LEE LOW OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.  ERN
PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD E AND SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE WRN PORTION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN ROCKIES TROUGH...BEFORE
MOVING EWD INTO SRN/SERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY LINE WILL
EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN KS TO WEST TX.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NWRN KS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SIMILAR THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO PORTION OF THE OK/NRN
TX PANHANDLES. 

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SEVERE STORMS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
IA/SRN WI AND NRN IL.  SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB/IA AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT REDEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SLY LLJ INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ALONG THE
DRY LINE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING.  SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE
INTO WEST TX WILL BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL CAP. 
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.  GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AND EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN
KS.  STRENGTHENING LLJ WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT ONE OR
TWO SEVERE MCS/S ACROSS KS/NEB WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EWD INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
STRONG...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL.  AIR MASS SOUTH AND
EAST OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS MCS FROM CENTRAL IL TO
SRN LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY  AS
THE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY SPREADS E/SE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT AND ENHANCED BY INCREASING WLY MID
LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH ANY N-S LINE SEGMENTS.  ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN
IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH HAIL ALSO LIKELY FROM IL EWD.  POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN
RE-INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN OH AND
REACH WRN PA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...SRN GA INTO CENTRAL FL...
30 KT OF NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SEWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC
COAST...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTI-CELLULAR
STORMS AGAIN OVER SRN GA AND SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL.  COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  IF SEVERE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN A SLIGHT
RISK WOULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.