[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100607
SWODY2
SPC AC 100606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
GLD 20 WSW BBW 15 WNW ALO 15 ENE MLI 40 ENE UIN STJ 35 ENE ICT 30 SW
LTS 50 N SJT 15 N MAF 40 S GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN
25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 W PNS 25 E CBM
30 S STL 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SSW MRF 25
N CVS 35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38
35 NNE LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W
VTN 40 E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE WRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY
EWD ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON WED WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM
TROUGH MIGRATES THROUGH SRN CANADA.  AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT
FROM SERN CANADA TO IA THEN WWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SWD
IN WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  WEAK LOW VCNTY NWRN KS
EARLY WED WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY EARLY THU...BUT THE MAIN
TRIPLE POINT WILL REDEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION THROUGH WRN KS AND INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE WED
EVENING.  MAIN IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
TUE NIGHT MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE
UPPER MS VLY WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  LARGE PORTION
OF THIS MCS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY BACKS/
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WED AFTN.

SLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WRN U.S. TROUGH BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY
WED AFTN...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MAY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. 
BUT...AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED STRONG HEATING...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NWRN KS INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA MID-LATE AFTN.  STORMS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT FROM WRN KS
SWD INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WRN TX S
PLAINS.

MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY.  BUT...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELLS.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
WRN KS SWD INTO W TX.  FARTHER N...CELLS MAY FORM...THEN GET
UNDERCUT BY THE ACCELERATING SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY IF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL MCS AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO KS AND WRN OK. 
ISOLD CELLS SWD IN W TX SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

...PALMER DIVIDE...
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE...A FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED
AFTN/EVENING.  H5 CYCLONIC JET OF 60-KTS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR HAILSTORMS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD
TORNADOES.  WILL CARRY LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE BUT NOT SLGT CATEGORICAL
RISK SINCE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE COLD DOME WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY/SUFFICIENTLY TO ELIMINATE INSTABILITY QUICKLY.

...MIDWEST...
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN A COUPLE OF THE 21Z SREF MEMBERS IN EVOLVING A
MCV OUT OF THE UPPER MS VLY MCS WED MORNING.  THIS SHOULD TRACK
EWD...PROBABLY TOWARD SRN LWR MI.  INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF
THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT IS APT TO SUPPORT STRONGER TSTMS ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV THROUGH IND AND OH WED AFTN.  THOUGH
TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK/
UNIDIRECTIONAL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN BECOME
ORIENTED IN N-S LINE SEGMENTS. WILL INTRODUCE A LOW PROBABILISTIC
SEVERE THREAT AND LET LATER OUTLOOKS EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK.

..RACY.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.