[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110600
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW
P07 15 S HOB 25 WSW GCK 25 WSW GLD 40 N GLD 20 SSW HSI 10 E OMA 35 S
FOD 25 NW CID 25 SSE DBQ 35 SW RFD 20 SSW MMO 20 SW BMI 45 WSW SPI
25 SSE SZL 50 SW JLN 60 E OKC 20 NW SPS 40 W BWD 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15
SE LHX 20 WSW COS 35 N 4BL 55 W U24 45 SSE TWF 25 SSW MQM 30 S BIL
40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 S TVC 20 NE CLE HLG 15
SSW SHD 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W
MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ENE MFE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PHASE WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH THAT WILL
MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THU AND THU NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...
NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD RECENT ECMWF/GFS IN DEPICTING THE STRONGEST
SURGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VLY THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THUS...WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LWR
MO VLY...KS AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THU AFTN BEFORE RESUMING A
SEWD MOTION THU NITE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS.  A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY SWD THROUGH W TX. 

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY THU ALONG THE NOSE
OF SWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE
LLJ WEAKENS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTN.  COOL OUTFLOW FROM
THIS STORMS SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL IL AND
SRN IA.

WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL LIKELY RETAIN
MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
7.5 C/KM...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT BY AFTN.  TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SRN IA TO CNTRL KS. SWLY H5 FLOW 60-65 KTS ATOP SLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL
BE LIKELY.  GIVEN LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE MEAN SHEAR
VECTORS ALONG THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE ENEWD.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CINH
IS ERODED LATE THU AFTN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX.  STRONGEST H5
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE DRYLINE AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN
OK/SWRN KS.  TWO-8 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE MORE NORMAL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY AND CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER THAN
FARTHER N.  ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.  A MCS WILL
PROBABLY FORM AFTER DARK AND MOVE THROUGH NWRN/CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS
BY EARLY FRI.

...OH VLY...
ISOLD STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS
THE OH VLY.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
STORM MODE IN THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL MAY RESULT WITH A FEW STORMS.  

CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK...ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ
ACROSS THE OH VLY.  PINPOINTING A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
DIFFICULT ATTM AND LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE.

..RACY.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.