[SWODY2] SWODY2

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ACUS02 KWNS 090552
SWODY2
SPC AC 090551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
SNY 30 SSE DGW 55 SSW 81V 25 WNW 9V9 35 ESE BKX 15 SSW RST 25 NE DBQ
40 N PIA 40 E UIN 25 SSE IRK 50 W LWD 25 W LNK EAR 30 WNW MCK 25 SE
SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI
35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 E SLN 40 W HLC 35 SSE AKO
30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH
25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW
DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 10 W ART 35 WNW ELM 20
WNW AOO 35 N SSU 40 W GSO 25 WNW FLO 20 NNE SAV 35 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THOUGH STILL BLOCKY...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO
THE WRN STATES...THE CNTRL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO
THE GRTLKS...OH VLY AND SERN STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  A CP AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE SWD FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
TSTMS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT/MID-MS VLY...
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN UPPER LOW...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL
WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. 
THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS FROM SERN WY LEE-LOW EWD
ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA.

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN.  A MODERATELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE
N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO ERN WY IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER WY
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS.  GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE TSTMS...MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  IF CINH CAN BE OVERCOME ON THE
ADJACENT PLAINS...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY SURVIVE INTO WRN NEB AS
STORMS CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT.

FARTHER E...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG/S
OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN IA.  ABSENCE OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AFTN TSTM
INITIATION...BUT EXPECTED HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE LEND A HIGHER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BY LATE TUE AFTN FROM
ERN NEB TO SWRN IA.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  LCL/S WILL BE RATHER
HIGH FOR TORNADOES...BUT AN ISOLD EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OVERNIGHT...SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AOA 60 KTS...BLOWING
NORMAL TO THE FRONT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SRN SD EWD TOWARD THE MS VLY.

...ERN GRT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...
CYCLONIC 60-KT H5 JET WILL ARC AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...LINES OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS EWD.  LINE SEGMENTS COULD BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE MEAN WIND SUCH THAT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.