[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081652
SWODY2
SPC AC 081651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 ENE GWO 25 E HEZ 30 SSE SHV TYR 15 N DUA 40 SSW
OJC 10 E P35 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 10 N AUW 30
SW OSH 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NNW SEP
40 E FSI 45 ESE ICT 35 NE MHK 40 ENE OLU 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE MBG 55 NE
BIS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 N BIL 45 SE 81V 15 N AKO 25
WNW COS 20 S MTJ 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX
...CONT... 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 ESE
MTC 10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH
THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING INTO THE ROCKIES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM WRN MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE SWWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY
STALLS AND EVENTUALLY RETREATS NWD IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG LLJ
AXIS. MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES EWD OR NEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST LATER MONDAY
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF MN/ERN IA INTO WI...IL AND MO.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR AS IT APPEARS THAT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD DEBRIS MAY TEND TO RETARD THIS PROCESS. GIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SOME CLOUD BREAKS...MLCAPES
WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS OWING TO
OVERALL WEAKENING OF TROUGH. NONETHELESS...SHOULD POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
SRN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED WAA TSTMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 09/12Z. SOME MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM PRIMARY
INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE W OF THE MS RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
INITIAL STORMS...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/ OVER THE SRN LOW
PLAINS/ARKLATEX REGION BY AFTERNOON.

SINCE AXIS OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE NEAR MS RIVER BY TIME OF
PEAK HEATING...QUESTION IS WHETHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DIABATIC HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP ALONG STALLING COLD FRONT
IN ABSENCE OF LARGER-SCALE FORCING. SHOULD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
INITIATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF PACIFIC FRONT FROM NERN NV/ID EWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO WRN WY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC FORCING AND FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.