[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091706
SWODY2
SPC AC 091705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
SNY 50 WNW BFF 65 WNW CDR 50 S PHP 30 S RWF 10 NE RST 25 S MKE 35 S
CGX 15 ENE DEC 25 S UIN 35 WSW P35 BIE 20 SE MCK 40 SSW IML 20 W
SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI
35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC SLN 40 WSW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30
NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25
SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH
20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 10 SSE BGM 20 W
NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 E SSI 40 SE TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEB AND IA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD
FROM CANADA DURING THE EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB/IA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INFLUX OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A
CAP SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO IA.

STRONG 0-2 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
GREATEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40+ KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT DURING THE
EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING SWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
AND N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MOSTLY ELEVATED AND
SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.