[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080517
SWODY2
SPC AC 080516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 NNW GWO 35 WSW PBF 35 WSW COU 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE
AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 25 NW AUW 20 WSW MSN 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 20 WSW NIR
40 W ALI 45 S LRD ...CONT... 15 E DRT 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW OKC 10 SSE
LBL 15 NW LHX 25 ESE GUC 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX
...CONT... 45 ENE CTB 40 NNE BIL 40 NNE RAP 40 SSW MHN 30 SSW EAR 20
E BIE 25 SSE YKN 35 N HON 10 E JMS 85 WNW RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC
10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER
MS VLY AND MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD/WEAKEN AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER SD
WILL MOVE INTO NERN MN BY MONDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE CORN BELT AND CNTRL PLAINS.  A DRYLINE WILL OSCILLATE OVER OK
AND CNTRL TX...BUT BEGIN TO SURGE WWD AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN OVER THE WRN STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

...MS VLY/MIDWEST...
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE TSTMS IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MS VLY/MIDWEST.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MCS OR TWO SITUATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX NEWD
TO THE MID-SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY A 30 KT
SWLY LLJ.  STRONGEST LLJ CORE SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE THREAT
FOR TSTMS.  BIG QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY HEATING CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM
AS HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE OVERHEAD.  ANY
DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SURFACE BASED
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL...IND AND FAR W KY AS THE H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CATEGORICAL SLGT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WELL...SO SEVERE TSTM THREAT LONGEVITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.

UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SWD
INTO ERN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SECONDARY H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATES EWD DURING PEAK HEATING AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST.
 BUT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY POOR AND SUGGESTS
THAT MAINLY MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY.  LARGE
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

...ERN OK...CNTRL/NERN TX EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY...
H5 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SABINE RVR VLY BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  A MYRIAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING /DRYLINE-COLD FRONT-OUTFLOW-SEABREEZE/.
SUSPECT THAT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF AN ISOLD SEVERE TSTM.

TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE SABINE AND LWR MS VLYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE WEAK AS THE MAIN LLJ TRANSLATES INTO THE MIDWEST.  BUT...
HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT
FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO LA AND PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS
THROUGH EVENING.  SHOULD STORMS FORM...STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
COULD OFFSET WEAK SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY
LARGE HAIL.  GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO
MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISKS AND AWAIT LATER DATA FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPGRADES.

...GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXCESSIVE...BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD AND MAGNITUDE OF PVA WILL SUPPORT
LINES OF TSTMS.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.