[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061725
SWODY2
SPC AC 061724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT
BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC 30 ESE FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65
SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 30 E FST 20 NE LBB 15 NE LBL 25 SSE
LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40 NW GDV 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC
20 ESE MBS 10 NE YNG 35 S MRB 10 NNE ECG 15 S OAJ 40 E CLT 35 WSW
LEX 45 NE EVV 20 ENE ALN 15 NW TBN 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS
50 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST 15 NW LBB 45 N AMA 25 WNW
LBL 10 ENE GLD 40 N IML 55 NE AIA 35 WNW CDR 35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N
GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW 40 E WEY 70 NW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EVOLVING INTO
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
THE E...MERGING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD 
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT AT 07/12Z WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN SD WITH ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTENSIFYING FROM RED RIVER VALLEY SEWD TO THIS LOW...AND THEN WWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SWD THROUGH
WRN KS...ERN TX PNHDL AND W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE NC COAST.

...DAKOTAS/NEB...
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS SATURDAY
MORNING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN
NEB/IA...FOCUSED WITHIN WAA PATTERN ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PRIOR TO WEAKENING
AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE 50S COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING
TO 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD ALONG
DRYLINE INTO CNTRL NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEB WITH MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND OVERALL SHORTER HODOGRAPH LENGTH NWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE
MULTICELLULAR WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY
E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S...POSSIBLY INTO LOWER 60S AT SOME
LOCATIONS. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5
C/KM...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WEAKER PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE
MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL APPROACH DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WHEN COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. INITIALLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER
WEAK...THOUGH IT SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD 08/00Z...SUGGESTING AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
THOUGH AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL SATURDAY. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKENING LATER SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLS/STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.