[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060553
SWODY2
SPC AC 060552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT
BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65 SSE DRT
...CONT... 45 SSW P07 FST LBB LBL 10 WSW LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40
NW GDV 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST
LBB 65 NNE AMA 10 NE LBL 45 ENE GLD 10 WSW LBF 45 W VTN 35 WNW CDR
35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW
40 E WEY 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC 20 ESE MBS 10 NE
YNG 30 NE SHD 45 S RIC 20 N RWI 25 N TRI 25 NNE LEX 15 W BMG 10 ENE
SPI 40 SE SZL 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS 50 WNW MFE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW TODAY AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING.  LEE-LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN TRAVEL EWD INTO ERN SD BY EARLY
SUNDAY.  A DRYLINE TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL
PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS AND WRN OK/TX BY SATURDAY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY REGION.  THE FRONTS/DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY...
ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY/CORN BELT ALONG NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ. 
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LLJ
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP WWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
PRIMARILY SATURDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MINIMAL...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG/E OF
THE DRYLINE.  MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AS FAR N AS THE SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT IN ND.

AS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TSTMS WILL
PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST ACROSS ND/ERN MT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE CINH WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER S.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
INVOF THE DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL SD SWD TO CNTRL KS AS CINH
BEGINS TO ERODE OWING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

GIVEN THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GLANCE OFF THE UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER E...AND LIFT MORE NWD WITH TIME...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK AND BECOME DEEP SLY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY STORMS
DEVELOP...CELLS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. 
FURTHERMORE...THOUGH MARGINAL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL.  VERY LARGE HAIL COULD
RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
OVER SWRN MN... CNTRL/SERN SD AND PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.  FARTHER
N...MAINLY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE EWD
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HIGH
WINDS/HAIL...BUT AS THE STORMS MIGRATE BEYOND THE LLJ AXIS...THE
SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH.

...SRN PLAINS...
FARTHER S...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS
INTO W TX...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLD GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LESS. 
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE THAN
FARTHER N...AND GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS COULD RESULT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY...BUT THE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE TIME STORMS MOVE
INTO CNTRL/NERN OK AND NCNTRL TX.

OVERNIGHT...TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD AND MORE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX AND MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL
TX BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

...MID/UPPER OH VLY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES SWD FROM ONTARIO.  KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC
SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERHAPS BACKBUILD NWWD INTO
THE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E AXIS.  STORMS WILL THEN
HAVE A PROPENSITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS.  AS THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE CONCRETE...AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS
PSBL.  ATTM...LOW PROBABILISTIC THREATS WILL SUFFICE.

..RACY.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.