[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051700
SWODY2
SPC AC 051659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 15 SE REJ 35 E Y22 40 E ABR 20 E OTG 15 WSW
FOD 50 ESE OMA 40 ESE LNK 35 SSW HSI MCK 15 NW IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 10 E MLB
...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 30 SSE FAY 20 E GSB 35 WNW ECG 10 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX
20 ENE COU 25 N JLN 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT
...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE
GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT
40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 30 S GFK 30 WSW DLH 15 ESE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO
SRN MN AND WRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST WILL
TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
1 PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER
ERN MT FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM
E-CNTRL WY INTO ERN ND WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E BY 06/12Z
BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS SD AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL EFFECTIVELY
SHARPEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN
TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SD/NEB INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA...
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ
AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE 50S S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB.

SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WRN/NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN
FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTING EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ALONG
NOSE OF SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS SRN EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST RUN OF THE NAMKF DOES SUGGEST THAT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN
CAP TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN INITIATION...MODESTLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM.

..MEAD.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.