[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050601
SWODY2
SPC AC 050600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
GCK 20 SW GLD 25 W IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 20 NNW RAP 60 NNW PHP 25
ENE BKX 20 E OTG 35 SW DSM 30 NE STJ 30 NNE TOP 30 NE SLN 50 N DDC
50 NW GCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV 25 SSW FLO
50 NNE RDU 25 W NHK 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 SSE CTY SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX
20 SE VIH 25 SSW SGF 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT
...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE
GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT
40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT 50 NNW IWD 10 N MQT 40 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS...

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN US TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SHIFT EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL JET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 55 TO 65 F SFC DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY
NWD WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS
NEB OR SD FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO INCREASE
IN THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z FRIDAY IN CNTRL NEB SHOW A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 00Z ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH STORMS SPREADING
NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SD. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP STORMS
ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM.

...ERN NC/SE VA...
A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT NNEWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUPPORTED DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION SPREADS NWD
ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA AROUND MIDDAY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

..BROYLES.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.