[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030546
SWODY2
SPC AC 030545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 50 NNE GTF
20 NNE LWT 25 NNE BIL 25 NNW WRL 50 NNW CPR 50 NW CDR 25 WNW 9V9 35
E ATY 45 WNW BRD 10 WSW INL ...CONT... 85 WNW ANJ 30 ENE MSN 15 S
MLI 20 S IRK 30 SE MHK 45 NNW P28 30 ESE LBL 40 WSW GAG 25 WSW CSM
20 NNE ADM 15 NW PRX 35 SSW GGG 15 SSW BPT ...CONT... 45 SE DMN 30 W
TCS 55 NNE SOW 25 WSW SGU 25 NNW DRA 25 WNW NID 10 WNW OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 10 SSE ABY
30 WSW AGS 20 NW CLT 20 NE GSO 25 NNE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...
NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHIFTING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PECOS REGION. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
DURING THE DAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE STEEPER IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...FORECAST SOUNDING FOR WCNTRL TX
SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50
KT. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MINIMAL...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS CELLS MATURE AND MOVE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.