[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031740
SWODY2
SPC AC 031739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CTB LWT 10 S
GCC 35 NNE CDR VTN 25 E 9V9 10 NNE INL ...CONT... MQT LNR OTM TOP
HUT P28 30 NNW END MKO PGO GGG CLL VCT 35 ENE CRP ...CONT... 40 WSW
ELP TCS 70 NNE INW SGU TPH 30 E BIH 25 WNW NID BFL PRB MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE AYS 30 WNW
SAV CHS 55 S CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS -- WITH BLENDED NRN/SRN
STREAM FLOW -- AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN NERN STATES. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
4-CORNERS STATES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS EARLY
IN PERIOD AND ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY 05/12Z.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APCHS FRONTAL ZONE
NOW ESSENTIALLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
-- PRIMARILY ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...S OF FRONT. 
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING AND 70S F DEW
POINTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG BETWEEN E AND W COAST
SEA BREEZES.  MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED MAY BE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.  CONSIDERABLE DISPARITIES
REMAIN IN SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AS TO
TIMING/LOCATION OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO
PENINSULA.  THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE IMPORTANT FOR ISALLOBARICALLY
FORCED ALIGNMENTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ACROSS REGION -- AND
RESULTANT INFLUENCES ON BOTH SEA BREEZE BEHAVIOR AND LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEARS.  IN ANY EVENT...HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SPEEDS
SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND RESTRICT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

...SW TX/SRN NM AREA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SRN NM SEWD ACROSS BIG BEND AND
COAHUILA.  GREATEST INSTABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER MEX MOUNTAINS W OF
DRT/LRD AREA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AIR MASS CONTAINING MOST
HIGHLY MODIFIED GULF TRAJECTORIES.  STRONG SFC HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THAT MOISTENING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG IN
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS.  PRIND POCKETS OR SWATHS OF CLEARING
WILL EXIST IN STRATUS DECK...BASED ON DAY TO DAY CLOUD TRENDS AND
EXPECTED MIXING/MODIFICATIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG AND W OF RIO
GRANDE.  SOME TSTMS MAY REACH BORDER WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING EVENING.  FARTHER NW...WEAKER MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND HIGH BASED
CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH ALSO MAY MOVE EWD OFF W TX/SRN NM
MOUNTAINS.  HAIL/GUSTS HEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.