[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020557
SWODY2
SPC AC 020556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 10 ENE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 45 SW BIL
30 ESE FCL 35 E LAA 35 ENE GAG 30 ESE OKC 15 NW PRX 20 SE LFK 25 NE
GLS ...CONT... 35 S DMN 40 W SOW 45 SE SGU 55 SSE ELY 40 ENE U31 15
WSW U31 30 NW TPH 25 SE BIH 10 NE FAT 35 NE SCK 20 SSE RBL 45 ESE
CEC 25 N EUG 45 NE 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...
A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN US
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ON THE SWRN END OF THE SFC HIGH...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM THE MTNS OF ERN
NM EXTENDING SOUTH AND EWD ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN WEST TX AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...MODEST INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S F AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM BY
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S AND THIS
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE
TO THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR
A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.