[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011657
SWODY2
SPC AC 011656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SBY 40 W ILG 40
SE IPT 35 NNW MSV ALB 30 SW EEN ORH 25 NE BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW P07 GDP PRC
DRA 45 NE SCK MHS EUG PDX GEG 3TH 3DU 45 NNE BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE
50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA LTS SPS MWL 25
SW CLL 30 E PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GNV 35 SE JAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG BEND REGION OF TX...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR WAS MOVING SWD THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO 
SWRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD
BECOME SELY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RETURN MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS/ WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT ALSO MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NV...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN
TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...WHILE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STILL
TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION/EVOLUTION FOR A SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

...NJ NWD INTO SRN NY/CT...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ROTATING A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH RAPIDLY
EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID/NRN ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE NY SWD INTO DELMARVA AT 18Z AND
THEN SWEEP EWD TO LONG ISLAND/CT BY 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF THUNDERSTORMS
DO DEVELOP...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM MAY TRANSPORT
STRONGER MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

..IMY.. 05/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.