[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010513
SWODY2
SPC AC 010512

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW P07 35 NNW GDP
20 NNE PRC 50 ESE BIH 45 NE SCK 10 NW MHS 35 S EUG 20 N SLE 35 NE
DLS 40 NW PDT 50 SSW S80 10 N BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15
NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA 50 N CDS 30 ENE SPS 45 S DAL
45 NW HOU 15 NE GLS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 25 SSE GNV 20 E JAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NRN AND
ERN U.S THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW
AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NRN CANADA TO
THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST SOUTH
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH...FROM SRN CA/NRN MEXICO..ACROSS THE PLAINS...TO
FL. A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...IS FCST TO UNDERCUT MEAN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND MOVE INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD SURGE...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SRN CO ATTM...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SFC ANTICYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SSWWD ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX DURING THE FIRST PART
OF MONDAY.

...TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION OF TX...
NAM IS LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH SSWWD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CRITICAL TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD. WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
POINTS WEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD THE BOUNDARY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW PLUME OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RESULT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED/POST
FRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS.

IF NAM SCENARIO IS CORRECT...A MORE NWD PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE PECOS
VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING OVERCOMES INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND DRYLINE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY EVENING. GREATER
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN.. 05/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.