[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310646
SWODY2
SPC AC 310645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
PNS 45 E LUL 15 SSW MEI 50 SW CBM 10 SSW TUP 15 WNW MSL 35 WNW CHA
25 SSW HSS 25 NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 30 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 N MLB 15
SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 25 ESE LFT
30 SW HEZ 50 W GLH 15 WSW PBF 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 30 NE LEX 10 E HTS
15 NE EKN 20 WNW HGR 20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 WNW 3HT
15 SW BZN 15 SW DLN 30 NW 27U 40 ENE LWS 30 NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE
CNTRL U.S. TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS  FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM A
SERIES OF COMPLEX SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A LARGE
AREA OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH. THE
LEADING IMPULSE...NOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM
THIS LEADING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD AND EXTEND WSWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN
GENERALLY WWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THURSDAY (DAY 1).
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...CROSSING
THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVING TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY EVENING (DAY 2). IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE NRN GULF COAST
ACROSS GA AND SC. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SC AND INTO ERN
NC/VA...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND NRN FL.

...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO SFC
DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR PENETRATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS MODELS WITH LATEST GFS FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST WITH THE SFC LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO
THE NAM. NAM MODEL WAS ALSO INDICATING ONLY LIMITED WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
RESULT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE MODEL.

DESPITE THESE CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNCERTAINTY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP EAST
ACROSS AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE DAY. TSTMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW NEAR THE
MS/AL BORDER AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS GA. TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER... DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX
AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
PERHAPS FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND. TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SC/NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF OR NEAR THESE
FEATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM AL TO
THE FL PNHDL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO NRN
FL INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL FL BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

..CARBIN.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.