[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311718
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
7R4 15 SSE HEZ 35 NW JAN 10 NNE UOX 35 SW BNA 25 N CSV 35 SW HSS 25
NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 35 WNW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 E SHV 10
ESE LIT 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 25 NW LEX 40 WSW UNI 30 E PKB 40 SSE LBE
20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 SE GTF
10 SW BZN 15 SSW DLN 30 NW 27U 30 N S80 40 NNW ALW 15 SW EAT 30 S
SEA 20 NW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO SERN STATES AND NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN KS TO TX
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS IT PHASES WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD
THE OH VALLEY. MODELS AGREE WITH THE PHASING OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...THE
12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.  GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PHASING/DEEPENING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...THE
SLOWER NAM/NAMKF WERE FOLLOWED FOR PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.  

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO GA/NRN FL/SC/NC...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR
WEST AS MS INTO LA IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN FL THROUGH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 2.

SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD WILL STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2 AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD WITH THE
DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THUS...INFLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL. 
STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH A SWLY MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS
OF 90 KT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY
SPREADS EWD.  LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ERN MS/WRN AL TO SERN LA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS SQUALL LINE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE WRN
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES ERN GA
TO NRN FL BY 12Z SATURDAY.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
NEWD INTO SC AND POTENTIALLY SRN NC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 03/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.