[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301730
SWODY2
SPC AC 301729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
BPT HOU 50 SSW CLL 35 SE TPL 35 NNW PRX HOT MEM MKL 20 S BWG 45 NNW
CSV CSV RMG MAI AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 45 NNW PIE
...CONT... 30 S PSX NIR 45 ENE COT SAT 30 W ACT SEP PVW 40 W EHA GLD
LBF VTN Y22 45 ENE DIK 60 SE MOT 45 NE JMS RWF SPW OMA EMP CNU JLN
UMN ARG HOP SDF TOL ARB MBL ESC MQT 80 NE CMX ...CONT... MSS JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E TX TO MID TN...AL...AND WRN
FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS.  MAIN FEATURES OF
CONCERN ALOFT ARE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA
AND OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGION. LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONT DURING PERIOD.  MEANWHILE
TRAILING SYSTEM SHOULD FORM CLOSED 500 MB VORTEX OVER SRN
PLAINS...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THAT
SUPPORT SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z SPECTRAL/NGM AND 9Z ETA-SREF FCSTS BETTER
THAN MORE OPEN-WAVE 12Z/OPERATIONAL ETA.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS
MS/AL EARLY DAY-2.  WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
ARKLATEX AREA IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER E TX AHEAD OF
MIDLEVEL LOW.  EXPECT RESULTANT FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE TO MOVE FROM
NWRN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS AND NRN AL THURSDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING
FRONT SWEEPS SEWD INTO NWRN GULF.

...SERN CONUS...
CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS TN VALLEY SWWD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/ERN LA...
CONTINUING REGIME FROM LATTER PART OF DAY-1 PERIOD.  REF DAY-1
OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS.  AS LEADING MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND EJECTS
AWAY FROM AREA...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/COUPLES DURING
EARLY-MID MORNING...LLJ WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E DURING AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH APCH OF SECOND UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
LOCATION/MODE OF PREFRONTAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ATTM...BECAUSE OF LIKELY DEPENDENCE ON LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF
MESO-BETA SCALE BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM MORNING ACTIVITY. 
THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER
PROBABILITY CORRIDOR FOR NOW...AND LEAVE OPEN POSSIBILITY OF
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS.

MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FROM E TX ACROSS SERN
STATES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND CONTINUAL MODIFICATION/ENRICHMENT OF MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW AIR
MASS.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S F
CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM E TX ACROSS
MS DELTA REGION.  60-65 KT EFFECTIVE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE BOTH
SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER PROGS REASONABLY
INDICATE RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR
DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE EXCEPT IN
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE ELY COMPONENT IS
POSSIBLE.  STRONG SFC HEATING IS LIKELY...YIELDING WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS THAT SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC.  AFTERNOON/EVENING TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FOCI.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY COALESCE INTO MCS AND MOVE E FROM ARKLATEX
AREA TOWARD AL/GA...WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL TOWARD GULF
COAST. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALL NIGHT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.