[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300714
SWODY2
SPC AC 300713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
BPT 35 SE CLL 40 ESE ACT 40 E DAL 15 N PRX 35 WSW HOT 60 NNE GLH 25
ESE TUP 15 SW GAD 35 NNE MCN 55 SW AGS 50 W SAV 30 SW AYS 35 S TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DAB 15 SE SRQ
...CONT... 10 E PSX 30 NW VCT 15 ENE SEP 60 NNE ABI 10 NNW PVW 30
ENE DHT 20 SE LAA 50 WNW GLD 20 SE AIA 15 NE PHP 40 WNW HON 30 W BKX
30 NE SUX 10 SSE OMA 15 NNW TOP 15 ENE CNU 10 NE JLN 30 SW UNO 20 S
PAH 15 E BWG 25 NW LUK 10 WNW FDY 45 NE GRR 25 SW OSH 65 NNE EAU 90
NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 35 ENE CXY 30 SSW ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT LEAST TWO SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
WILL BE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. THE STRONGER
IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
PERIOD WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD
TO THE LOWER MS VLY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ON
THURSDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND/UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IMPULSE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY
AND GULF COAST DURING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN ANALYSIS
OF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD INDICATES THE NAM HAS DIVERGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW INDICATES A LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK/N TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS...WHILE
SIMILAR TO EARLIER GFS AND NAM RUNS...SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH BUT
WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND
WEAKER WITH RESULTANT SFC DEVELOPMENT OVER LA BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN FCST STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FCSTS OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OUTLOOK.

...ERN TX/LA EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF COAST AND SOUTH...
THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY AND TN VLY DURING THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WWD TO THE MS VLY GIVEN WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DURING THE
DAY. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AS FORCING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. IF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS
STRONGER AND FASTER THAN LATEST NAM FCST... WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT ON
THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION PER LATEST GFS. IF THE UPPER
WAVE IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FARTHER
SOUTH...PER LATEST NAM...MORE LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.

A COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM PARTS OF ERN TX/WRN LA TO LA/MS
FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AS DIFFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...FOR
VIGOROUS TSTM UPDRAFTS. STORMS MAY BE UNDERCUT OR EVEN FORM ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND
LAPSE RATES....WOULD FAVOR PRIMARILY HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...IF SFC LOW IS DEEPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
STRONGER...THERE COULD BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY MAY FORM
INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF
COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
WRN GULF IN ITS WAKE.

..CARBIN.. 03/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.