[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290701
SWODY2
SPC AC 290700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
MSN 10 SW MTW 10 NE MBL HTL 25 NNE MBS 20 NNE ARB 15 SSE FWA 20 E
LAF 35 NNW DNV 35 SSE MMO 20 SE JVL 35 E MSN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 25 NNW UCA
40 S ROC 25 SSE DUJ 20 SE MGW 35 WSW BKW 70 NNW AHN 35 W MCN 10 WSW
DHN 30 NNW MSY 25 W BTR 20 SSE POE 40 NNE POE 45 SSE HOT 25 W MEM 40
WNW DYR 10 WSW PAH MVN 20 ENE ALN 40 N COU 30 NE STJ 50 ENE OMA 30
SSE MKT 70 S DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 40 ESE Y22 50 E CDR
25 N MCK 25 ESE SLN 30 N JLN 45 SSW JLN 45 NE OKC 45 E DHT 20 WNW
4SL 80 S 4BL 25 WNW 4HV 20 SW EVW 35 ESE IDA 25 WSW BZN 25 WSW GTF
50 WNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE
MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE ROCKIES TO 
MIDWEST AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATE THROUGH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
THE LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER
VLY...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM MO/IA TO MI DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPR MS
VLY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY. THIS
EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER WLY
JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER
THETA-E AIR MASS NWD FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO IL/IND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN WI SWD TO THE IL/IND
BORDER AREA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SFC HEATING AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG) 
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM (120M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER)
WILL AID TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED FROM NRN IND INTO LWR
MI. WHILE PATTERN SUGGESTS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
AND/OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF
CONVECTION

...LWR MS VLY TO TN VLY...
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING
INVERSION IS FCST TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
BY LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN A MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING AS DEEP LAYER SLOPED ASCENT INTENSIFIES IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET. FCST MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL STORMS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG UPSTREAM CAP...AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TIMING OF INITIATION WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW AT
THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 03/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.