[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281721
SWODY2
SPC AC 281720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB HLN LND RWL
LAR CYS SNY LBF BBW BUB BKX AXN BRD 50 SE DLH AUW LNR DBQ IRK OJC
ICT P28 LBL EHA RTN FMN U17 MLF ELY BAM PDT 55 NNE 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED
...FEATURING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. 
PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE -- INDICATED BOTH IN 12Z RAOB ANALYSES
AND LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS --
IS FCST TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LEAVING SYNOPTIC
SCALE RIDGE FROM ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO HUDSON BAY. 
UPSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES IS
FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS FROM MT TO TX DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING DAY-2.  PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CROSSING PORTIONS MO/IA BY END OF
PERIOD...BASED MORE ON 12Z SPECTRAL/ETA AND 9Z SREF GUIDANCE THAN
LESS AMPLIFIED NGM.

AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING NOW UNDERWAY OVER GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY WITH APCH OF WRN STATES MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BECOME
FRONTOGENETIC BY 29/18Z AND MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 30/00Z.  JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING EVENING AND EJECT NEWD
ACROSS MO/IA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD OVER KS/OK AND
NWRN/N-CENTAL TX.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING AFTERNOON.  ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS
PORTIONS KS/NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...STRENGTH OF COOLING
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH 30S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
DIABATIC HEATING.  HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES
GENERALLY UNDER 350 J/KG EXPECTED.  SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WITH SUCH LIMITED BUOYANCY...THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...AFTER
DARK.  MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FARTHER N ACROSS
E-CENTRAL PLAINS AND CORN BELT WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED SHORT
TURNAROUND TIME AND LIMITED MODIFICATION OPPORTUNITY.  THIS INCLUDES
AIR MASS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE CENTRAL/WRN GULF AND PARCELS RESIDING
OVER NW GULF WITH 40S F SFC DEW POINTS.  THOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN LLJ THAT FAR N...STRONG COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SATURATION OF ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS IN
ELEVATED CONVEYOR -- MAINLY W-NE OF SFC LOW.  RESULT MAY BE ELEVATED
MUCAPES 100-300 J/KG AND CONTINUATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
THIS REGION FROM WRN KS/NEB.

MODIFIED WRN GULF AIR MASS MAY RESULT IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S TO
LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS ERN TX/OK BY END OF PERIOD...HOWEVER ETA
SEEMS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN BASED ON PRESENT
TRENDS.  COMBINATION OF WEAK MOISTURE...VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LIMITING CONVERGENCE...WLY/SWLY ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CINH...SHOULD KEEP WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVER SRN PLAINS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.