[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 60 WNW GTF
30 WSW BZN 45 NE JAC 50 SE RIW 30 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 50 ESE LIC 50 SE
GLD 35 ENE HLC 20 SSE HSI 15 S OLU 20 NE OFK 15 NE YKN 30 SSW HON 55
SE MBG 40 NE MBG 40 NNW JMS 30 E DVL 35 NNW TVF 25 SSW INL 30 N DLH
40 S IWD 20 NNE AUW 40 W OSH 30 SE LNR 30 WSW MLI 50 NNE COU 50 S
OJC 20 WSW PNC 35 SSW GAG 25 SSE DHT 30 NNW LVS 15 SW DRO 10 WSW 4BL
35 NNW BCE 20 W ELY 25 SE BAM 40 NE BNO 25 NE EPH 40 NNE 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
48 STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EAST...THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S. WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE FIRST IMPULSE TO
PRODUCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE
OVER CA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN LIFT ENEWD FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND LITTLE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FCST TO STREAM EWD/SEWD FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MAINTAIN LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. A BELT OF FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW
ARCING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND THEN NEWD
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEFINE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN
EDGE OF THIS FASTER FLOW... ORIGINATING NEAR A SFC LOW OVER THE
UPPER MS VLY AND TRAILING SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THEN
WWD/NWWD TO THE FRONT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ACT ON A WARM/DRY AIR
MASS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN CO ACROSS KS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT PREFRONTAL MIXING/HEATING...AND THEN
FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS
TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTERACTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR RETURNING NWD ON STRENGTHENING LLJ.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY
AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY...COUPLED WITH STRONG
ASCENT...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED...A SMALL SEVERE AREA/HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY
BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...ROCKIES...
SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED WEAK TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES GIVEN LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND HEATING COMBINE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 03/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.