[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271621
SWODY2
SPC AC 271620

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30
S RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE
ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 NNE DAB
...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E
BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 35 WSW PSF 20 SSE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS
15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE
MER 25 WSW RNO 20 NE SVE 20 E 4LW 35 S BNO 10 WSW BKE 20 SSE S80 25
SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10
ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN NC NWD
THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AT
28/12Z WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS REBOUNDING FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE IN THE W...NEXT
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE W COAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN KY MONDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER CNTRL APPALACHIAN
PIEDMONT...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
29/12Z. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD ALLOW PIEDMONT
FRONT TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AS A WARM
FRONT WHILE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY. IN
THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...FOCUSING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
TIME NON-SEVERE TSTMS.

...ERN NC NWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 28/12Z ALONG AND S
OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NC/VA WITHIN ZONE OF
INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS. GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR OWING TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THESE WIND MAXIMA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD
THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM ERN
WV/WRN VA EWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY AS POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD CORE SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREA.

..MEAD.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.