[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270632
SWODY2
SPC AC 270631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 35
E RWI 40 ENE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE
ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FMY 10 N MLB
...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E
BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 20 NNE POU 20 NW HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS
15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE
MER 30 SW NFL 45 N LOL 45 NW WMC 85 SE BNO 35 WNW BOI 80 WSW 27U 25
SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10
ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM NERN NC TO SRN NJ...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT EARLY SPRING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN NEWD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALSO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE A STRONG AND
EXTENSIVE UPPER WAVE WILL DEVELOP INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM DRIVING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THIS PERIOD AS INTENSE DYNAMICS
AND KINEMATICS AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. WRN TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WRN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

...NERN NC TO DELMARVA AND SRN NJ...
AS DEEPENING/REDEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS VA TO DELMARVA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SWATH OF LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
FCST TO SPREAD NWD FROM ERN NC TO CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH PRONOUNCED
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS INDICATING AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. VERY
STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS BENEATH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET. TIGHT ISOTACH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NOSE OF THE JET CORE...AND APPROACH OF WEAKER
MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...
AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...SHOULD
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...AND
NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE WIND DAMAGE... HAIL...AND TORNADO
THREATS WILL EXIST OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREA. OTHER
CLUSTERS OF LESS ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING HAIL...MAY OCCUR WITHIN/BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING.

..CARBIN.. 03/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.