[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261734
SWODY2
SPC AC 261733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CEW 30 W TOI 25 SW BHM 40 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 15 NW HOP 30 ENE BWG 35
WSW LOZ 20 N TYS 30 SE TYS 20 N GSP 15 SSW CLT 30 N FLO 10 SSW ILM
...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15 SSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
MOB 20 N MOB 30 NNE MEI 20 NNE MEM 35 NNE DYR 35 NE PAH 25 E EVV 10
S LUK 35 NNW HTS 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 30 SSW PSK 60 SW RIC 20 NE
ORF ...CONT... MLB 30 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW FCA 55 E S80 20
ENE BOI 55 SSE BNO 50 S 4LW 15 NNE TVL 15 ENE MER 35 SE MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 35 NNE MCB
50 WNW JAN 40 NE MLU 30 WNW ELD 20 N PGO 25 S UMN 15 S MTO 20 NE IND
35 WNW CMH 25 E LBE 30 E CXY 25 ESE NEL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS...CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL.

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 95-105 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AT 27/12Z WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO THE
SERN CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER MS
DELTA SUNDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN
AND INTO ERN KY BY 27/12Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY
LIFT NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WHILE CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT
RETREATS NWD MUCH MORE SLOWLY. FINALLY...COLD FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW
SWD THROUGH ERN MS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KY SEWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND THEN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL BY MONDAY MORNING.

...TN VALLEY/AL EWD ACROSS GA/SC AND NRN FL...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD OVERALL SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WARRANTING WWD SHIFT IN MODERATE RISK
AREA.

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL
ADVECTION REGIME FROM PORTIONS OF TN/AL EWD INTO GA AND POSSIBLY SC.
GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND INFLUX OF
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE GULF...POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP
NEWD SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT SPREADING N OF SURFACE WARM
SECTOR /I.E. N OF PIEDMONT FRONT/ OWING TO THE STRONG WARM/THERMAL
ADVECTIONS ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO
NRN/CNTRL AL. HERE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/...INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
GA ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES...WILL ALSO DEVELOP S OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.