[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260654
SWODY2
SPC AC 260653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
AQQ 45 NE DHN 15 E LGC 35 E ANB 10 E GAD 25 SSW HSV 10 SW MSL 20 WNW
MSL 50 NNW MSL 45 WSW BNA 30 S BWG 55 E BWG 40 SW LOZ TYS 60 SSE TYS
25 N AND SPA 30 SSE CLT 20 NNE FLO 10 S CRE ...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15
SSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30
S FMY ...CONT... 30 S CEW 30 W DHN 25 NE TOI 35 S ANB 20 E BHM 45
SSW MSL 10 SE TUP 30 NNE UOX 25 ENE DYR 45 NNW HOP 10 ESE OWB 30 W
LEX 30 E LEX 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 20 NW TRI 15 WNW HSS AVL 20 ENE
HKY 30 NW RWI 40 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 60 NNW CEW
15 S 0A8 20 SW TCL 30 ESE GWO 55 E MLU 35 SSW ELD 40 SSE HOT 35 ENE
JBR 25 WNW EVV 50 E BMG 40 W UNI 30 N SHD 15 N NHK 35 ENE SBY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TENNESSEE...EXTREME SRN KY...MUCH OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM EXTREME NERN MS TO NC AND SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF FL...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE MS
VLY...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12 HOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
FROM TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS BELT OF HIGH SPEED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 90-100KT SPREADS ACROSS TN/GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
PERIOD. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE WILL START OUT SUNDAY OVER MS AND THEN
TRACK NEWD INTO THE TN VLY DURING THE DAY WHILE DEEPENING. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND NWD ALONG THE WRN PLATEAU OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ENEWD TO THE NC/SC BORDER
AND THEN NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL NC.

AS PRIMARY CYCLONE BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE
FRONTAL WAVES WILL LIKELY RIPPLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PIEDMONT
FRONT FROM NRN GA TO SC/NC. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST FROM AL AND
MOVE ACROSS GA/NRN FL...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING.

...KY/TN VLY/NRN GA...
SURFACE LOW AND MOIST WARM SECTOR ARE FCST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS
NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING BENEATH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM INTENSE
BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SURFACE-BASED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR SPREADING
ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW. BASED ON LATEST
NAM GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS...THE AREA FROM HUNTSVILLE/AL TO
NASHVILLE/TN MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO SC AS INTENSE DYNAMIC
FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THESE
AREAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LONG-LIVED CELLS
TRACKING ENEWD ALONG...AS OPPOSED TO ACROSS...THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WILL ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SC...AND PERHAPS INTO NC THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

...SRN GA/NRN FL/CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
GA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS
RECOVERY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT
CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR ACROSS THESE AREAS DESTABILIZES BENEATH
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA IS INITIALLY LIMITED ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STORMS CAN INITIATE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND MOVE INTO SC
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LINEAR AND PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN
FL AND SC LATE BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

..CARBIN.. 03/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.