[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251720
SWODY2
SPC AC 251719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
GLS 50 SW LFK 35 S TYR 45 NNW GGG 20 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM 40
NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
GLS 35 SW CLL 25 W TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 30 SW DYR 30
W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15
S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 50 N HDO 20
ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20 WSW
EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30 N
LOZ 45 ENE TRI RDU 30 W HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LA...MS AND AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM ERN TX ACROSS LA...MS...AL AND POSSIBLY INTO GA AND FL.

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE S-CNTRL STATES. 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE
MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM CNTRL/SRN TX ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WHILE 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO ERN TX DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E-CNTRL TX TO OFF THE SC
COAST BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING NEWD INTO NRN MS BY SUNDAY MORNING

...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SERN CONUS...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/ARKLATEX WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD ACROSS REGION. APPEARS LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS RECOVERY /LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH SLY/SWLY LLJ/ WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THIS LEAD SYSTEM...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS AL/MS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GA/SC SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN LA/MS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.

POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF EVOLVING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
TX AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/JET STREAK BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES.

APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FACTOR INITIALLY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST
ACROSS WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT GREATER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN/SERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL.

..MEAD.. 03/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.