[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250642
SWODY2
SPC AC 250641

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
LCH 50 S LFK 45 WNW LFK 25 NNE TYR 15 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM
40 NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
GLS 15 S CLL 20 WNW TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 10 SW DYR
25 W BNA 30 ESE CSV AND 15 ENE AGS 35 SSE SAV ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15
S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE PSX 50 N HDO
20 ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20
WSW EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30
N LOZ 20 SW GSO 20 SSW FAY 20 S CRE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS...SOUTH ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS AR...PARTS
OF TN...NRN MS/AL...GA/FL...AND WRN SC...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
HIGH WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SPRING TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF
STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW /70-80KT AT 500MB OVER TX BY
SATURDAY EVENING/ WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM
ERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL
PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN
TX NEWD INTO LA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS
THE LWR MS VLY AND FUEL WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND AS FAR
EAST AS NRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...ERN TX INTO AR/LA/MS/AL...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN TX AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO
SPREAD EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON
AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN STRONG FORCING SPREADING EAST INTO THIS
REGION...AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND
PRONOUNCED SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE MORNING. STORMS NEAR THE FRONT/LOW WILL
LIKELY BUILD INTO THIS AIR MASS AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED FROM ERN TX
INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
CAPPING...AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY BECOMING TORNADIC. ORIENTATION OF
WARM FRONT...AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN/NEAR THE FEED OF
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO FOR A COUPLE OF
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG/SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN BROAD WARM SECTOR FCST EWD ACROSS THE
LWR MS VLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAMILIES OF SUPERCELLS WITH CYCLIC
TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO MS AND PARTS OF AL
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...TN VLY TO SOUTHEAST...
MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FROM THE TN VLY EWD TO GA/SC. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO NRN AND ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION INTO A FAST MOVING SEVERE SQUALL LINE FROM MS/AL EAST
TO GA/SC. ETA IS ALSO FCSTG AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX DURING THE NIGHT...FROM THE FL PNHDL NEWD ACROSS GA AND SRN
SC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

...WEST TX...
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. IF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW
HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH HAIL COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 03/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.