[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240614
SWODY2
SPC AC 240612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ABQ 55 NNE SAD
30 W PHX 25 NNW EED 45 NNE DRA 30 NW ELY 55 NE ENV 30 SW BPI 40 WNW
RWL LAR 30 ESE DEN 30 SSE PUB 40 S RTN 25 SSW ABQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 25 SW VCT
45 S SAT 30 NNW HDO 20 N SJT 60 S CDS 15 SSW LTS 15 NE ADM 20 ENE
FSM UNO 20 WNW HUF 25 NNE DAY 15 SSE HLG 15 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 NW CEW
35 SSE CSG 10 NNW MCN 40 ESE ATL 10 W ATL 30 SSE BHM 10 ENE MEI 30
SW LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NEWD TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER-TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 26/00Z SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DUE TO
THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OR NE
TX BY 06Z. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DUE TO A
NEWD MOVEMENT OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
06Z IN NE TX SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS/COASTAL PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
00Z. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN VA AND NRN NC
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WHICH SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BY EARLY
EVENING FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE REGION.

...CNTRL FL...
SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD
INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN CNTRL FL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND
PROFILES WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..BROYLES.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.