[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241732
SWODY2
SPC AC 241731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT
15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50
SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE
VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB
45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH
DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER
NRN AR/SRN MO AT 26/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. 

...FL/GA...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY
42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING
MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...TN VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE 
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

...TX...
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED
ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.