[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231734
SWODY2
SPC AC 231733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNW MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ONP YKM 27U JAC
40 S LND 15 WNW FCL AKO IML LNK DSM DBQ SBN DAY LEX MSL TUP GLH ELD
TXK PGO JLN EMP 45 N DDC 35 ESE LIC COS 10 ESE ALS FMN SGU DRA SAC
ACV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER STATES. 
THIS REGIME IS COMPRISED OF INTERACTING SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.  

AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES EARLY THURSDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...DIGS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO
BAJA.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP BY 12Z FRIDAY...FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF STATES.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY. 
BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F.  DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO  MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINING WEAK ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

INTERSECTION OF REMNANT FRONT/SEA BREEZE...ALONG COASTAL AREAS...OR
PERHAPS JUST INLAND...ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF PALM BEACH...MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS.  MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK OF
HAIL/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST AREAS.  HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOISTEN ENVIRONMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY.  

AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF SURFACE
WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/ILLINOIS COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...BUT INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR
STORMS ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLTEX.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.  SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

..KERR.. 03/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.