[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221723
SWODY2
SPC AC 221722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
VRB 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 NNW CAE 30 NNE
HKY PSK 35 NNE ROA 30 ESE CHO 25 WSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AST 45 WNW PDT
60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 20 E SNY 20 ENE LAA 40 WSW CAO 25 NW
ABQ 40 NNE INW 55 NNE LAS 45 S NFL 35 WSW SVE 10 WNW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PFN 40 E TOI
15 NE ANB 30 ESE BNA SDF 25 N LUK 15 N ZZV 20 WNW AOO 15 N NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF SRN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. BY MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE NC COAST AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN EXIT REGION
OF APPROACHING UPPER JET.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS S OF THE WARM FRONT. A ZONE OF
PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN
VA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. DRY SLOT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN JET EXIT
REGION AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE S OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG 
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NC
INTO SRN VA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE JET SPREADS EWD. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO SC AND GA MAY BE LIMITED...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DRY SLOT AND TENDENCY FOR THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE. WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SERN GA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL FL...

A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
SERN GA THROUGH NRN FL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TENDENCY 
FOR THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE LINE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN
FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY
OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN WARM SECTOR. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LINE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.