[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220700
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
ILM 25 SSW FLO 25 N AGS 10 N AND 30 E HSS 15 SW PSK 35 NNW RIC 25
SSE NHK WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PNS 30 SW MGM
15 NE 0A8 25 E TUP 30 WSW PAH 20 SW MTO 45 W FWA 10 WSW CLE 10 SSW
JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AST 15 E LWS
20 SW 3HT 40 W 4BQ 25 NE BFF 45 ENE LIC 45 N CAO 40 SSE LVS 85 ESE
SOW 30 NNW PHX 40 E DAG 45 S BIH 50 SSW SVE 45 NNW 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN VA...NC AND NRN
SC...

...MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN CAROLINAS...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD
HELP WRAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO ERN VA AND NE NC DURING THE
DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING BEHIND THE LINE COULD RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE SFC LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MINI-SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE
STEEPEST AND FORCED ASCENT SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

...FLORIDA...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN
GA EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE MORNING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE LINE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE LINE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NCNTRL
FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
BRIEF SEVERE THREAT IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES
ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS
REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.