[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211736
SWODY2
SPC AC 211735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
PFN 30 N PNS 25 NE LUL 20 SSW GWO 65 ENE PBF 20 SSW JBR 30 NW DYR 55
WSW HOP 50 NE MSL 35 WNW RMG 35 E ATL 35 WSW AGS 55 S AGS 40 NE AYS
30 SSW AYS 35 SSW VLD 25 ENE PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
LCH 50 NNW ESF 25 ESE HOT 35 SSW HRO 35 ENE SGF 45 SSW STL 20 NNW
EVV 35 S LEX 35 NNW HSS 25 WNW AVL SPA 45 SSW GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 ESE
ECG ...CONT... DAB 10 SSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW
4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 25 SSE SHV
15 SSE PGO MKO 15 NNE BVO 35 ESE EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW
DAY PKB 35 W SHD 35 ESE CHO 10 SSE NHK 30 NE SBY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS...TN...SRN OH
VALLEYS INTO THE SERN U.S. AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER THE SWRN U.S.
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
EWD INTO AR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN AR SWD THROUGH ERN LA BY MID AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN TN...CNTRL AL...GA AND SC
DURING THE DAY. 


...SRN AR...MS...AL...GA INTO PARTS OF SC AND NC...

MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF AR...LA...AND MS EARLY
TUESDAY. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN AR INTO LA AND MS WHERE
STORMS WILL BE NEAR SURFACE BASED. INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR A
MINIMUM DUE TO TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND NE THROUGH THE SERN
STATES. WARM...MOIST MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
AND POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING S OF MCS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY 
ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/SRN AL INTO GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AS
THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND.

...CNTRL/NERN AR THROUGH WRN TN...

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MCS. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000
TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX IN EXIT REGION
OF UPPER JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MAINLY LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.