[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210532
SWODY2
SPC AC 210531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
MEI 30 NNW GWO 30 WSW MEM DYR 50 SSW CKV 35 NNW HSV 25 W RMG 30 ESE
RMG 20 NNE AHN 35 SSE AND 20 SE AGS 45 NW AYS 35 NNW TLH 25 NE CEW
65 SW SEM 30 WNW MEI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
HUM ESF LIT UNO 60 ESE VIH SLO 30 ESE BMG JKL 25 WSW TRI 25 WNW AVL
20 NNW GSP CLT 25 NNW RDU 25 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 10 SSW
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 45 SE SHV
25 WSW HOT MKO 25 NE PNC EMP TOP UIN LAF 35 SSW FDY PKB 35 NNW LYH
NHK 30 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW
4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF
TN...MS...AL...AND GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INTO THE CAROLINAS...

POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY.  AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG
WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...GULF COAST STATES...
LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
TN/MS/AL DURING THE DAY.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 60S AND POCKETS OF SBCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG.  MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  SEVERE
STORMS WILL SWEEP INTO GA/SC DURING THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND.

...MID/LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL OK BY 12Z
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO
DURING THE DAY.  LARGE SHIELD OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THIS
REGION...ALLOWING STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  SIGNIFICANT HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE.  THIS MAY AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN MS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE IN REGION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND STRONG UVVS.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..HART.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.