[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191735
SWODY2
SPC AC 191734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 55 WSW RBL 35 NNE
RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 20 W ALI
40 W AUS 35 WSW SPS 45 SW GAG 55 N CAO 20 ENE ALS 50 SW CEZ 60 NNE
IGM 40 WSW DRA 40 W TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 15 S LWS 45 NW 3TH 30
SSW FCA 15 SSE DLN 25 ENE WRL 25 WNW LBF 30 NE HLC 50 SSW JLN 35 NW
TXK 55 WNW JAN 30 N MGM 35 WSW MCN 35 NNE MGR AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE SRN
STREAM -- OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS -- THIS PERIOD.  SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO BE EXITING TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. / GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT LOW LEVELS...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
TX / THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FLOW SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  RESULTING
LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  CLOUDS /
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD MODULATE STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THE
REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.

THEREFORE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  GREATEST THREATS MAY EXIST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST --
WHERE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A ISOLATED WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO...AND
ACROSS E TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AND THUS MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

...SRN KS / OK / N CENTRAL AND NERN TX...
RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD
ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SRN KS / OK THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DESPITE FAVORABLY-STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT.  

DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS / WRN OK / WRN N TX...AND ISOLATED /
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. 
WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW.  OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET
AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY HAIL THREAT WITH MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.