[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200706
SWODY2
SPC AC 200704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
POE 30 SW TYR 35 ESE DAL 10 NE DUA 20 WNW MLC MKO 10 SSW FYV 50 SE
HRO 10 WSW MEM 15 W TUP 20 WSW CBM 20 NNW MEI 30 SE JAN 10 E HEZ 15
NNE ESF 50 NNW POE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 25 S CLL 15
NNW ACT 25 NW OKC 25 S P28 40 N P28 20 S SLN 40 SSE OJC 45 SSE VIH
35 SSW PAH 30 NNE HSV 40 E ANB 40 SE CSG 25 N TLH 15 E AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 15 W AUS
45 SW SPS 10 NNW LBL 25 NE LIC 30 SW SNY 35 SSW MHN 10 NNE OMA 25 NW
SPI 50 NNE SDF 35 SE PSK 45 ESE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 55 NNW RDM
35 SSE EUG 25 SSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 50 ESE RBL 50 S
TVL 10 SSW FAT 15 WNW SMX.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE OFF
MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD THE SYSTEM...AN EXTENSIVE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO
THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
ARKLATEX REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MIDDAY...CLEARING

SKIES WEST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK. CELLS WHICH DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION OVER NE TX AND SE OK
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FARTHER NNWWD...ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD
DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE GRADUALLY ORGANIZES. AS THE
SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
TOWARD THE SRN END OF THE LINE...AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE LINE...ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD REACHING WRN MS LATE
IN THE PERIOD,

...GA AND NRN FL...
A MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY
ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MID-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL

PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE SEVERE THREAT. ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.