[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190704
SWODY2
SPC AC 190703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
TYR 15 ENE DAL 40 ESE FSI 20 W END 35 N P28 15 NNW SLN 10 NNE MHK 20
SSE TOP 10 E JLN 25 NW HOT 25 SE TXK 20 NE TYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE OTH 40 W SVE
40 W BIH 40 SE FAT 35 E PRB 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 20 ENE 3DU
40 SSW WEY 35 SW LND 15 E CAG 40 SE GUC 20 ENE 4SL 35 ENE GNT 25 SW
GUP 20 WNW INW 55 SSW SGU 40 NE U31 40 E BNO 35 N 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 NW NIR 40
WNW SEP 35 N CSM 20 NNE DDC 45 SSE GLD 35 SSE IML 25 SW LBF 35 E ANW
20 WSW YKN 15 NNE SUX 45 SSE P35 45 S UNO 35 WSW UOX 40 E 0A8 10 S
MCN 50 W SAV 20 NNE SSI ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 35 E GNV 45 SSW GNV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS..OK..NRN
TX...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER-TROUGH. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 50+ F SFC
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES DURING
THE EVENING...ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK E-NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING...SFC-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY
CNTRL KS AND NRN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK AND KS SHOW MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUGGESTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WILL FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK AND
SPREAD SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE OZARKS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA THROUGH THE
DAY 2 PERIOD. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN EAST
TX FOR 00Z MON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED.

ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE WRN STATES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
SFC HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.