[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181731
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
CRP NIR 50 ESE SAT CLL 25 N LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25 ENE MCB 25
ESE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM YKM BNO 10 N WMC
TPH NID BFL 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRE SOP RDU 50 W
ECG 35 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE LRD HDO 45 SE
BWD DAL PBF MEM MKL 40 WNW MSL TCL SEM 30 SSW CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MMO 25 NE BEH TOL ZZV
HTS 10 SSE LEX SDF MTO BMI MMO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST....

UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING
THE PAST DAY OR SO.  IN GENERAL...THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH MULTIPLE DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW
 OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  IN RESPONSE TO
LATTER FEATURE...EXIT REGION OF STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER PACIFIC JET
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU REGION INTO TEXAS.

FARTHER NORTH/EAST...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.  JUST AHEAD...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF... THIS
FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST.

GIVEN SEASONAL WARMING OF LOWER LEVELS...AND CONTINUING COOL
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ALL AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  MOISTURE LEVELS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN SLOWER TO RECOVER
...AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...AND FORCING FOR FURTHER CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS...IS UNCERTAIN.

SLOW MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADVECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE REALIZED BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.
 GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.  LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP TO SUPPORT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO/ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRENDS MAY BE FOR
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME FOCUSED OFF THE TEXAS COAST.

..KERR.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.