[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180638
SWODY2
SPC AC 180637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CRP 15 SSW NIR 40 NNW NIR 40 SE AUS 25 NW LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25
ENE MCB 25 ESE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 65 E 63S
30 SSW 3DU 30 E PIH 40 NE U24 SGU 45 ENE NID 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CRE 15 NE SOP 50
E LYH 20 NNW NHK 35 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW COT 40 SW JCT
15 ESE BWD 20 N PRX 40 NW LIT 30 NNE MEM 10 W MSL 30 S BHM 30 SSW
CEW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...LA..MS...

...EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BROADEN AND AMPLIFY BY THE DAY 2
PERIOD AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY AND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SPREAD
STRONG ASCENT ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS TX AND LA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 55-65 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY SPREADING NWD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG
TX AND LA COASTAL PLAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

...MID-ATLANTIC/NC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AS A GULF STREAM SFC LOW ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS NC AND VA. THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

...WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST ON DAY 2 SPREADING LIFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPS WARM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE AFTERNOON STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.