[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW MKT 40 SE EAU 35
WSW OSH CGX DNV MVN DYR UOX JAN HEZ ESF SHV TXK FSM UMN MKC STJ 15
NE OMA SPW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH/BREAKS DOWN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE LIMITED.

...PLAINS/MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES APPEARS RATHER VIGOROUS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MID-
LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C...WHICH WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY.  STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX.

THUS...DESPITE RATHER LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH MINIMIZED BY VERY WEAK
CAPE...HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE...BUT RISK FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS TOO
REMOTE TO OUTLOOK LOW  SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

FARTHER SOUTH...CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS... WHERE
MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER.  HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.  BETTER CHANCE MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

..KERR.. 03/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.