[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170707
SWODY2
SPC AC 170706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E OWB 20 ENE MSL
55 NNW MEI 30 W JAN 50 NNW POE 40 NNW LFK 35 SW TYR 50 NNW HOT 40 NW
COU 30 SSW DSM 15 ENE FOD 35 S LNR 35 E RFD 35 ENE LAF 40 E OWB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN
STATES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A LARGE PACIFIC MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CA COAST TO NRN BAJA REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  A BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
TIER OF STATES WITH SEVERAL LEADING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRACKING EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME INTO TX.  MEANWHILE...A MID
LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH
VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND FL.  ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS IA TO SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z SATURDAY...
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS
VALLEY.

...MS VALLEY...
STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FROM IA TO AR
AND THEN EWD TOWARD IND TO NWRN AL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF
NWD TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS.  GIVEN NWLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE GULF DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AT THE START OF DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST.
SWLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP THE MODEST RETURN FLOW
EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. 
INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WAA ALONG
THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

...CA COAST...
INCREASING ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE CA COAST LATE
IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG THE COAST.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 03/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.