[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161729
SWODY2
SPC AC 161728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSE
SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HLC 10 NW GLD 10 SE
FCL RWL COD SHR 10 SW REJ PIR MHE FSD SUX LNK HLC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED OR MORE ZONAL REGIME THURSDAY. 
THIS WILL OCCUR AS SHORT WAVES...COMPRISING CURRENT AMPLIFIED
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/MEXICAN PLATEAU
...ACCELERATE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. 
LEAD SHORT WAVES...MORE OR LESS IN PHASE...WILL MAINTAIN POSITIVE
TILT ORIENTATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. 
SOUTHERN SYSTEM LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND LIKELY WILL ONLY REACH
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM EAST OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STREAM LIKELY WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF
MELBOURNE THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FORT MYERS AREAS BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ALONG/NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY..BUT MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS.  WARMER MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OPEN WATERS.... PARTICULARLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF FORT MYERS...SHOULD PROVE MORE FAVORABLE TO OVERCOMING MID/UPPER
INHIBITION.

EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH.  DAYTIME
HEATING OVER INLAND AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MIAMI WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ERODING CAP AND INCREASED FORCING
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE  REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LOW.  ADDITIONALLY...VEERED /I.E.
SOUTHWESTERLY/ BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
WILL LIMIT SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND TEND TO MINIMIZE
TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN LOWER
LEVELS DUE TO HEATING...AND 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS.

...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
FORCING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WYOMING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD...NEAR/SOUTH OF SHARP FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

..KERR.. 03/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.