[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160617
SWODY2
SPC AC 160616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 15 SSE SSI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET
STREAK...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TO THE WEST OF NRN BAJA...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100
KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER NRN FL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW AN ONGOING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD ACROSS FL.  DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...
RICH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000
J/KG.  KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...BUT
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL TEND TO
MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN 60-70 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
S FL...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEAR OR ABOVE SEVERE
LEVELS MAY OCCUR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES
ACROSS S FL.  IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LESS VEERING IN
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND/OR GREATER INSTABILITY...THEN A SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE SRN HALF OF FL ON
THURSDAY.

..PETERS.. 03/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.